AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures are hovering around UNCH this morning. They saw losses of 2 to 3 1/2 cents in most contracts on Thursday, pressured by a disappointing export sales number. The USDA Export Sales report was disappointing at just 382,534 MT. That was a drop of 62% from the previous week and 69.52% lower than the same time last year. Export shipments in that week totaled 1.1 MMT, more than triple this time last year but down 31.4% wk/wk. For perspective, corn export commitments are 41% larger than last year at this time, with unshipped sales 27% larger despite the down week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, (402) 289-2330

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 1 1/2 cents higher after posting 21 to 22 1/4 cent losses in the nearby contracts on Thursday. Front month soy meal was down $7.40/ton, with soy oil 54 points lower. Export sales of 2018/19 soybeans were just 293,566 MT for the week that ended on October 11. The number was depressed by switches from unknown (claiming previously booked sales), which saw a net reduction of 694,400 MT for the week. Bean shipments of soybeans picked up 30.9% from last week at 1.157 MMT but were still down 37.4% from a year ago. Spain was the top destination of 188,000 MT, with 134,700 MT headed to China. Soybean export sales commitments are currently 21% smaller than last year. Argentina’s ag ministry expects that country’s planted soybean acreage to total 43.25 million acres, up ~750,000 from last year.

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 1 1/2 cents lower in the Chicago and KC contracts this morning. MPLS spring wheat has a few contract months with fraction of a cent gains. The three markets closed 2 to 6 1/4 cents lower on Thursday. A stronger dollar and an expected pick up in the winter wheat planting pace weighed on the market. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed wheat sales in the week of 10/11 rose 40.4% from the prior week to 475,998 MT. That was still down 22.7% from last year. Wheat export commitments are 18% smaller than last year at this time, but unshipped sales are down only 4%, so the picture looks a little better going forward. Japan bought 59,640 MT of US origin wheat at their weekly tender. The USDA ag attach for Russia projected 2018 wheat production at 68.5 MMT (1.5 MMT below the official USDA number). Exports are seen at 33.4 MMT, 1.6 MMT lower than last week’s official USDA numbers.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures were mostly steady to 30 cents lower on Thursday, with front month Oct up 15 cents. Feeder cattle futures ended the day with triple digit gains in the nearby contracts. Oct needs to stay close to cash with expiration a week from today. The CME feeder cattle index was up 36 cents on October 17 at $155.50. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $2.26 @ $206.82, with Select $1.16 higher at $192.35. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Thursday is 467,000 head. That is 1,000 below the previous week and 1,000 head larger than last year. A few $111 cash trades in Nebraska were reported on Thursday, with most other feedlots passing. Weekly beef export shipments totaled 16,012 MT in that week.

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean hog futures settled Thursday with sharp $2.35-$2.40 losses in the nearby contracts. After the close, it was reported that the US has suspended pork imports from Poland after the country reported an outbreak of African Swine Fever. Poland is typically the second largest origin of US pork imports. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 42 cents from the previous day @ $68.17 on October 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 40 cents lower @ $78.12 in the PM report. The national base hog carcass value was 8 cents higher in the afternoon report, with the weighted average at $59.16. FI hog slaughter is estimated at 1.890million head WTD through Thursday. That is up 28,000 from last week and 66,000 larger than the same week in 2017. Export sales of pork in the week of October 11 were tallied at 20,762 MT, with shipments of 25,691 MT reported by USDA.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures are trading 10 to 27 points lower this morning. They finished Thursday with 9 to 15 point gains in the front months. Export sales of 18/19 upland cotton in the week ending 10/11 totaled 32,656 RB, 66.68% lower than last week. That included 13,400 RB sold to lead buyer Pakistan and 18,480 RB in reductions to China (they may have been deferred to 2019/20). Sales for 19/20 were reported at 24,200 RB, with 17,600 RB sold to China. The US shipped 33,088 RB of upland to China in the week ending October 11. Cotton export commitments have been slowing but are still 17% larger than last year at this time. The Cotlook A index was down 30 points from the previous day at 87.75 cents/lb on October 17. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 69.09 cents/lb, up 1.32 cents from last week and good through next Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353