Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Friday steady to fractionally mixed, as July was down 1.11% on the week. The USDA reported a private export sale of 131,300 MT of corn to Mexico this morning. The sale was broke down to 30,000 MT for delivery in 2017/18, with the remaining 101,300 MT set for 2018/19 shipment. There was also a sale of 117,000 MT for 2018/19 to Panama reported through the USDA’s daily reporting system. The 6-10 day outlook is forecasting above average temps and precip in most of the Corn Belt. China sold 739,954 MT of corn from state reserves on Friday, totaling 18.64% of the offered amount. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds flipping their net position in the week that ended on Tuesday. On that date, they had a net short position of -14,038 contracts in corn futures and options, a move of -50,254 contracts from the week prior.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.57 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, unch,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.78, down 1/4 cent

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, down 1/4 cent

Soybean futures settled 14 to 14 3/4 cents higher in the front months on Friday. Nearby July lost 1.21% since last Friday despite hitting a 9 1/2 year low on Tuesday. Front Month soy meal was up $7.30/ton, with soybean oil 2 points in the green. Managed money speculators cut 25,671 contracts off their net long position in soybean futures and options in the week 6/19, to flip to a net short position of -12,801 contracts. The EPA reportedly plans to increase biofuels blending mandate by 3% in 2019 to 19.88 billion gallons. Biodiesel is targeted at 2.43 billion gallons, up 330 million gallons. BAGE estimates that the 97.1% of the Argentina soybean crop is harvested.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $8.94 1/2, up 14 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.00, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $9.06, up 14 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.25 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $339.10, up $7.30,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.21, up $0.02

Wheat futures ended the Friday session 3 3/4 to 4 cents lower. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options were reported at a net short position of -752 contracts in the week ending 6/19. That was a net move of 15,655 contracts from their previously held net long position. They trimmed their net long in KC wheat to 47,213 contracts. Philippines bought in 220,000 MT of feed wheat on Thursday, with origins likely Australia or the Black Sea region. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the Argentine wheat crop is 49% planted. Ukraine’s ag minister estimates the country’s 2018 wheat crop will total somewhere in the range of 23-26 MMT, down from last year’s harvest of 26.2 MMT.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91 1/4, down 4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.88 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.49, down 3 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures finished with mixed trade on Friday, with nearby June down 37.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were up 45 to 72.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 36 cents from the previous day at $142.57 on June 21. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 25 cents to $217.25, with Select boxes 41 cents higher at $203.93. That tightened the Ch/SE spread to $15.14. Cash sales reported on Friday afternoon totaled $109-110 in most regions. Weekly FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 664,000 head through Saturday, a 10,000 increase from last week. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report indicated June 1 on feed numbers at 11.553 million head, up 4.12% from last year. Placements were slightly larger than a year ago at 2.124 million head, higher than most trade estimates, with marketings at 2.056 million head up 5.38%. Cold storage of beef at the end of may was at 465.387 million pounds, down 1.19% from April but 2.74% larger than last year.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $108.275, down $0.375,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.900, down $0.225,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $109.400, up $0.400,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.200, up $0.725

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.825, up $0.575

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.475, up $0.450

Lean hog futures saw 22.5 to 65 cent losses in most contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 65 cents to $85.79 on June 20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $85.64 on Friday afternoon, up 60 cents. The national base carcass price was down $1.61 in the Friday PM report, averaging 79.97. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 2.168 million head for this week. That is down 47,000 head from last week, but up 13,000 head from a year ago. This afternoon’s cold storage report for the end of May showed pork stocks at 621.736 million pounds, down 2.05% from April but up 5.7% from last year. Belly stocks were down 3.9% from last month at 61.188 million pounds.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $79.825, down $0.650,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $75.375, down $0.350

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $61.300, down $0.225

Cotton futures posted triple digit gains in most front months on Friday, with nearby July up 222 points. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money trimming the cotton net long position by 7,673 contracts to a net position of 81,238 contracts as of Tuesday. Thursday’s cotton on call report showed mills unfixed call sales position at 15,195 contracts as of 6/15. That was 10,602 contracts below the previous week. The Cotlook A index is up 40 points from day prior at 93.40 cents/lb on June 21. The weekly AWP was updated to 78.23 cents/lb for this next week, down 476 points from the week prior. China sold 10,000 tonnes of cotton at an auction of state reserves on Friday, representing 33% of the cotton available.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 85.430, up 222 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 86.340, up 104 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 85.300, up 101 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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