Ag Market Commentary

Midweek trading for front month corn futures left prices 2 1/2 to 5 cents higher at the close. After Wednesday, corn prices have a green candle for each day of the current week, a net move of 12 3/4 cents (3%) for December futures since the week’s open. EIA reported ethanol production for the week ending 10/16 averaged 913,000 barrels per day. That was down 24k bpd wk/wk and 83k bpd below the same week last year. The ethanol stockpile fell back below 20m barrels to 19.721 million barrels. U.S. Grains Council reported the FOB gulf price for ethanol was 2.7% higher on the week at $1.594/gal. Port Santos FOB price was $1.746/gal from Brazil. Ahead of tomorrow’s Export Sales report, traders anticipate 0.8-1.4 MMT of corn bookings for the week ending October 15.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.13 3/4, up 5 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.16 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.18 1/2, up 3 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.18, up 2 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




The soy complex was stronger on Wednesday for beans and meal, but weaker for oil. Beans were 5 1/2 cents to 8 cents higher at the close. Midweek meal prices were $5.00 to $6.90/ton higher. Bean oil faded and was 11 to 26 points lower at the close. Traders expect between 1.5 and 2.5 MMT of soybeans were sold in the week ending 10/15. For soymeal, traders anticipate between 100k and 350k MT sold. BO export sales are estimated to be less than 30,000 MT in tomorrow’s update. Brazil’s CONAB reported that the U.S. is the only non-Mercosur nation capable of exporting soybeans to Brazil at competitive prices. CONAB also maintained their record large 2020/21 bean production estimates, citing minimal to negligible effects of late planting.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.72, up 8 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.71 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.58 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.55, up 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $378.80, up $6.90

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.20, down $0.11

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures faded earlier gains in the afternoon and the complex closed the session mixed. SRW futures were within 2 3/4 cents of UNCH, with losses nearby and gains for ’21 crops. HRW wheat ended the session fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower. Spring wheat futures held onto gains of up to 4 ¾ cents. US wheat export bookings are estimated between 200,000 and 800,000 MT for the week ending 10/15. The USDA weekly Export Sales report will be out in the morning. Japan issued an optional origin wheat tender for 80,000 MT. Ethiopia issued an international tender for 280k MT of optional origin wheat. S. Korea is tendering for 60k MT of feed wheat. Algeria is seeking at least 50,000 MT of wheat in an international tender.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.29 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.69 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Fat cattle futures ended 22 to 87 cents in the red. Feeders gave back some of the earlier gains, but still closed 25 to 37 cents higher. October feeders closed Wednesday with a dime loss and 1,463 contracts open. They are still anticipating a big drop in the CME Index over the next week. The 10/20 Feeder Cattle Index dropped 30 cents to $138.36. The FCE online cattle auction sold 702 of the 1,096 listed. The cattle sold were mostly $106.50, but one pen went for $106.25. Cash sales in NE picked up on Wednesday with $104-$105 live and $162-$165 dressed The range for the week has been $102 to $106.50. Trader estimates ahead of the monthly USDA CoF report have a 3.2% increase to Oct 1 on feed. Placements are estimated to increase 2.4% from September 19. September marketings are estimated at 5.8% above ’19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker in the PM report. Choice boxes were quoted at $208.47, down by $2.13 cent. Select boxes were 76 cents weaker to $190.91. USDA estimates 360,000 cattle were slaughtered for the week through Wednesday. That compares to 356k LW and 355,000 head LY.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $103.650, down $0.475,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $104.575, down $0.875,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $108.075, down $0.575,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.400, down $0.100

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.150, up $0.375

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $127.075, up $0.375

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the closing bell for the midweek session, lean hog futures were a nickel to 82 cents weaker. Dec is once again premium to Feb. The October 19 CME Lean Hog Index was $78.62, up by 35 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was back up by $1.38 in the afternoon update at $63.22. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.25 higher on 10/21 to $98.16 cwt. Hams were up $16.63, but the other primal cuts were mostly lower. Looking ahead to the 2021 Lunar New Year celebration in China, pork prices are currently running 30% higher yr/yr. China’s September pig herd was 370m head, which was down 16% from 2017. The Ag Ministry set a goal to maintain at least 80% of normal levels by the year end. They anticipate that pork prices for that holiday period will be lower due to both improved production and heavy imports. Federally inspected hog slaughter for the week through Wednesday is 1.457 million head. That is 2k head higher wk/wk, but 13,000 below the same week last year.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $69.200, down $0.050,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $68.450, down $0.825

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $70.800, down $0.600

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton ended the Wednesday trade session with gains limited to 5 points. Futures did post new highs, which for Dec was just a point off the Jan 22 high. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 3,823 bales were sold at spot on Wednesday at 9 points better 65.79 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was up another 140 points to 76.80 cents/lb on 10/20. The trade spat between China and Australia, which began in barley, has moved to cotton as China told importers to source cotton elsewhere. There has been no official ban or tariff imposed, but the verbal commands apply to both cotton and coal from Australia. The AWP for cotton is 53.43 cents/lb, through tomorrow.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 71.04, up 2 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 71.73, up 3 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 72.34, up 5 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 72.81, up 3 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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